Group A: Spain (2), France (8), Brazil (10), Serbia (11), Iran (20) and Egypt (46)
Needless to say, this is the tournament's "group of death." It includes not only traditional powerhouses but also FIBA qualifying tournament champions in France (Europe) and Iran (Asia) as well as world number two and host country Spain. The Spaniards, needless to say, have perhaps the best chance among all competing teams of pulling the rug from under the Americans in the final game. With the Gasol brothers Pau and Marc and naturalized big man Serge Ibaka in tow, nothing could possibly go wrong for basketball's La Furia Roja (The Red Fury). Serbia, while no longer as potent as during its days as Yugoslavia, remains a formidable threat to any opposing team. France, despite missing the services of NBA veterans Tony Parker and Nando de Colo and being nearly beaten by the Philippines in the Antibes pocket tournament, is still capable of withstanding the onslaught of opposing teams and creating an upset or two. Brazil qualified for this tournament thanks to the wildcard route, but they failed to qualify outright only because its four best players (Anderson Varejao, Nene, Tiago Splitter and Leandro Barbosa) were all injured during the 2013 FIBA Americas qualifying tournament. Now with all four of them back in tip-top shape, they have made the Brazilians seem like title contenders once more. In the company of these four superpowers, Iran and Egypt, the only two teams in this group with no NBA player from the past NBA season in their rosters, are the undisputed minnows in this group and will find it nearly impossible to avoid an early exit.
Prediction: Spain, Serbia, France, and Brazil will advance from this group
Group B: Argentina (3), Greece (5), Croatia (16), Puerto Rico (17), Philippines (34) and Senegal (41)
If there is one group that could potentially be a second group of death after Group A, its this one. Argentina may be ranked third in the world, but their status could be greatly affected in this tournament with Manu Ginobili, Carlos Delfino and Juan Gutierrez being unable to play due to injuries. Nevertheless, they remain strong on both ends with Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni leading the charge for Los Cóndores (The Condors). Greece may have qualified by being selected as a wildcard entry, but that doesn't take away the fact that it is still a world beater, with 19-year-old Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo and Nick Calathes in the frontline of the Hellenic assault. Croatia, another bonafide world beater, will rely on the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic, Damjan Rudez and Damir Markota. Puerto Rico will be bannered by playmakers JJ Barea and Carlos Arroyo and the fiery Renaldo Balkman, making the Boricuas a quality opponent to look out for. Basketball-crazy and perennial underdogs the Philippines, better known locally as Gilas Pilipinas (literally Philippine Elegance in English), will have naturalized big man Andray Blatche leading the Big Brown Assault along with guards Paul "Angas ng Tondo/Pilipinas" (Cockiness of Tondo/the Philippines) Lee, Jayson "The Blur" Castro and Jimmy "The Mighty Mouse" Alapag (in his last tour of duty for the national team) and forward Marc Pingris. Despite losing a number of tuneup games leading to the main tournament, they have rarely if ever been outfought, earning them the respect of their opponents, including Australia assistant coach and former Chicago Bull Luc Longley. Look for this extremely gutsy squad to come up with an incredible upset or two in the group stages. Senegal, tall and athletic but wanting in firepower and skill on both ends, would have had no easy group to play in no matter how many times the draw is redone. They will need a consistent A-game from their main man, center Gorgui Dieng of the NBA's Minnesota Timberwolves, to have any chance of making it past the group stage.
Prediction: I find this group admittedly tricky, but I think Argentina, Greece and Croatia would survive this group, with the last slot being a toss up between Puerto Rico and the Philippines
Group C: United States (1), Turkey (7), New Zealand (19), Dominican Republic (26), Finland (39) and Ukraine (45)
The Americans have never had an easy time by landing in this group. If Group A is this tournament's group of death, Group C could be the group of sleep. There is so much that has been said and written about the juggernaut that is Team USA that it is almost impossible to describe them without ever mentioning a cliché or two. Fearless forecast? They will bully-whip their groupmates by an average margin of at least 40 points, leaving the rest to fight tooth and nail for the remaining three final round qualifying slots. The Turks, beaten finalists to the Kevin Durant-led Team USA in the 2010 FIBA Worlds, will have no more Hedo Turkoglu or Mehmet Okur to protect them, but there's still NBA big man Omer Asik to guide them through. They may not be able to top this group, but they can give the Americans a run for their money. The Tall Blacks have no NBA player in their lineup, but what makes them impressive is their ability to pull the rug from under their world-class opponents, as evidenced by their miraculous fourth-place finish in the 2002 tournament. The Dominican Republic will sorely miss the services of injured talisman Al Horford, but will still have Francisco Garcia, Eloy Vargas and Jack Michael Martinez available. They appear to be a longshot to even advance past this group given the sudden improvement of Ukraine, but beating them will be no walk in the park for their foes either. Ukraine and Finland are both playing in this tournament for the first time ever, with the latter being the higher-ranked of the two, but make no mistake about it: They are worlds apart in terms of skill level. The Ukrainians have shown great progress since last year, as evidenced by their 50-point drubbing of the Philippines in Antibes early this month. Winning the title in their maiden appearance may be an unrealistic goal for them, but there is certainly lots of room for improvement for this tall, young squad. Finland, on the other hand, remains a fragile squad led by the aging 38-year-old former Atlanta Hawk Hanno Mottola. They qualified through the wild card route and are certainly not expected to see the light of the final round, but they will certainly be using this tournament as a learning experience for them to further their basketball program.
Prediction: United States, Turkey, New Zealand and Ukraine will progress from this group
Group D: Lithuania (4), Australia (9), Slovenia (13), Angola (15), Mexico (24) and South Korea (31)
Lithuania, that basketball-mad Baltic state, is the undisputed team to beat in this group. They are no strangers to world basketball domination, although they have yet to win the gold medal in this tournament or even the Olympics. Expect Toronto Raptor Jonas Valanciunas to take charge for these really tall Europeans to make a podium finish or even upset the mighty US of A. Not far behind is Australia, the Boomers from Down Under, who have consistently figured in the world stage despite basketball not being their national pastime. They may not have Andrew Bogut or Patty Mills around, but look out for the likes of Dante Exum, Aron Baynes and Matthew Dellavedova to help the team make a kangaroo leap to further prominence. The Angolans, the reigning African champions, have no NBA players in their lineup. They could very well be the Atlanta Hawks of international basketball: Successful in the group stages but get eliminated early in the knockout stages. They may make life difficult for their group mates, but they could also find it equally difficult to avoid the group stage exit ax. Mexico, the reigning FIBA Americas champion (excluding Team USA, of course), is playing for the first time in 40 years, the longest absence among all the tournament's current participating teams. The basketball version of El Tri (The Tricolors) will certainly look to NBA veterans Gustavo Ayon and Jorge Gutierrez to provide all-around leadership if they are to have any hope of making it to the knockout stages, a possibility that doesn't seem to be remote, especially considering their remarkable improvement in recent years. Good but not strong enough is what could best describe their chances of upsetting the sport's legitimate world beaters. South Korea, decidedly the weakest team in the group and perhaps the entire tournament, would have had no easy group to play in no matter how many times the draw is redone just like Group B's Senegal. Starting center Kim Joo-sung is the last holdover of the last South Korean team that saw action in this tournament before the current one, which happened in 1998. No doubt the team's most veteran member, he will be playing a big brother's role and aim to impart his past World Cup experience to the young guns in a bid to make a significant impact in this tournament. The basketball version of the Taeguk Warriors, though, will still have their work definitely cut out for them.
Prediction: Lithuania, Australia and Slovenia will make it out of this group, with the final slot to be tightly contested by Angola and Mexico
Whew! There you go, my personal analysis and prediction of the fates of the competing teams. I do admit I am no genuine basketball analyst, but based on my 25-year experience as an avid basketball fan and with the way I watched the participating teams play, I could very well foresee what may take place in the days ahead. Now here's another question: If the Gilas players (not including naturalized players Andray Blatche and Marcus Douthit) get to play in the NBA continuously for at least four years, how would they fare? To answer that, I came up with another set of (really short) forecasts of which NBA player they would more likely be playing like with a more-or-less similar style at their prime. Again, forgive me for I am not a certified basketball analyst. Here it is:
Jimmy Alapag
Best-case scenario: Damon Stoudamire
Worst-case scenario: Jim Les
LA Tenorio
Best-case scenario: Earl Boykins
Worst-case scenario: Keith Jennings
Jeff Chan
Best-case scenario: Danny Green
Worst-case scenario: Rex Walters
Jayson Castro
Best-case scenario: Damian Lillard
Worst-case scenario: Eric Snow
Gary David
Best-case scenario: Jeff Hornacek
Worst-case scenario: Anthony Bowie
Ranidel de Ocampo
Best-case scenario: Rick Fox
Worst-case scenario: Monty Williams
Gabe Norwood
Best-case scenario: Richard "Rip" Hamilton
Worst-case scenario: Dennis Hopson
June Mar Fajardo
Best-case scenario: Marc Gasol
Worst-case scenario: Kendrick Perkins or Dwayne Schintzius
Paul Lee
Best-case scenario: Jason Terry
Worst-case scenario: Bobby Hurley
Japeth Aguilar
Best-case scenario: Chris Bosh
Worst-case scenario: DerMarr Johnson
Marc Pingris
Best-case scenario: Dennis Rodman or Harry "The Horse" Gallatin
Worst-case scenario: Kenny Walker
Jared Dillinger
Best-case scenario: Goran Dragic
Worst-case scenario: Zoran Planinic
Beau Belga
Best-case scenario: Sam Perkins
Worst-case scenario: Brad Lohaus
Jay Washington
Best-case scenario: Lionel Simmons
Worst-case scenario: Mirza Teletovic
By now, I should already be sleeping as the FIBA World Cup is just around the corner. Be there when it happens! For now, I'll leave you with this official video clip of the 2014 FIBA World Cup. You've got to enjoy seeing Japeth, Gabe and Ranidel dancing along here and the pretty Filipina basketball fan at the 0:43 mark of the video! Laban Pilipinas! Puso!
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